The crowd just put
money on it.
Here's what they know.

Every morning, The Prob surfaces the biggest movers, most interesting bets, and sharpest crowd signals from Polymarket and Kalshi. We cut the market-speak so you get straight to what matters.

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The Prob Portfolio Experiment 1 Concluded

Full Post-Mortem ↗

▶ Experiment 1 · 83 Days · 591 Trades · Winner

Model A. The Crowd

Followed crowd conviction. Turned $1,000 into $1,996 in 83 days.

+99.6%

$1,995.94 final balance

Model A

WIN

$1,995.94

+99.6%

383–65 · 448 trades

Model B

$1,931.37

+93.1%

69–2 · 71 trades

Model C · Inconclusive

$1,000.00

0.0%

Not enough data

Test 2 launches Jun 15 · Model A defends vs 2 new challengers.

See the full breakdown ↗

Today's Biggest Movers Markets on the Move

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The Prob · Daily Brief

Every morning, the smartest money is already on the board. We tell you where it went.

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⚡ The Spread The Crowd Disagrees With Itself

Poly vs Kalshi • 8pt+ gap

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Featured The Prob's Daily Take

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Why The Prob Prediction Markets, Explained

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Crowd wisdom, not punditry

Prediction markets pool the views of thousands of people with real money on the line. That's not an opinion. It's a probability. We surface what the crowd knows before the headlines catch up.

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The movers matter most

A market sitting at 40% for a week is background noise. A market moving 10 points overnight? That's signal. We track the change, because that's where the real information lives.

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Built for humans, not traders

You don't need a Polymarket account to find this useful. We translate market activity into plain language so you can think more clearly about what's actually likely to happen next.

The crowd just putmoney on it.Here's what they know.

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The crowd just put
money on it.
Here's what they know.